New Year Greetings

A HaJaAr HaPpY & PrOsPeRoUs NeW YeAr.

Good luck on placements and for success in the wider world beyond campus.

Jai Ho.

Sudhir

India's Shining Decade

Surjit Bhalla, among my faorite economic columnists hits the ball out of the ballpark with this wonderful piece here in the Biz Std. link

Aaj ka must-read. Some select excerpts:

Two key conclusions emerge about Indian GDP growth. First, that this growth is now at a plateau level of 8-9 per cent. Second, that very soon, analysts and punters will have to change their Word documents to “India is the fastest growing economy in the world” rather than, “excepting China, India is the fastest growing economy”.

There are three separate reasons for this, all of which have been outlined numerous times before in these columns (and a detailed assessment was provided in Bhalla-2007*). The reasons refer to the broad determinants of economic growth — capital, labour and productivity. On the first, India is investing at the same rate as China (approximately 40 per cent of GDP), on the second, India’s labour force growth is about 1.8 per cent per year faster than China, and on the third, China has outpaced India by about 2 per cent per annum (for the last five years). Most of this outpacing has had to do with the deep and deeper currency undervaluation practised by the Chinese authorities which led to two unsatisfactory outcomes: the great financial crisis of 2008, and now the largest and fastest growing polluter of the world.

There's more:

I realise I am going out on a limb, because no one has even dared to project India to grow at even the same rate as China — and I am saying that India exceeds the China growth rate as early as 2010 (as it happens, this is the exact year forecast in Bhalla-2007). But I have good fortune on my side — my forecast of 8 per cent plus for Indian GDP growth for 2009-10 (made on April 18, 2009, “V–shape of things to come”, Business Standard) got an “endorsement” from India’s Finance Minister Mr Pranab Mukherjee when he claimed a few days ago that India’s growth could top 8 per cent this fiscal year.

What Indian policy-makers have not realised, and their counterparts around the world, especially China, do recognise, is that what international organisations say affects perceptions of the world, and affects our own negotiating positions. Take for example the assessment of poverty in India. We keep coming out with poverty lines and expert committee reports whose only terms of reference is to increase the rate or poverty to somewhere around 80-90 per cent (why they don’t reach 99 per cent poor is a mystery). China, on the other hand, refuses to let the Asian Development Bank even mention the word China in its poverty assessment report for all of Asia (presumably, China is situated in Europe). China does not ask for money for climate control, and Jairam Ramesh gets berated for sacrificing India’s interests by not begging for more aid.

Read it all.

FMCG 'dream choice' for fresh MBA graduates

I know, sounds a tad surprising but that's what this AC NIelsen survey seems to be saying.Link to biz std article is here.

The Fast Moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) sector has emerged as the industry of choice for this year’s management graduates.

According to Nielsen Campus Track B-school Survey, 44 per cent of students graduating in 2010 voted FMCG sector as their most preferred industry. Hindustan Unilever (HUL) and Procter & Gamble (P&G) emerged the ‘dream companies’ for students.

FMCG also tops the ‘industry of future’ list. Other industries preferred are management consulting, foreign banks, entertainment and media, and Software, IT Consultancy/ IT Services.

Aha. But are these grads from the top institutes? How representative is the sample of the top B schools in the country?

The average salary expectation of students from their dream company has notched up a few decimals to Rs 14.6 lakh this year against Rs 14 lakh last year. Student’s perception of players in the FMCG industry has changed over the years inching closer and closer to the traditional leaders, Consultancy. While certain key Consultant companies still dominate campus recruitments, as an industry, most FMCG players have gained in perception over last year. The other industry that has shown a significant movement in preference is media industry.

Well, the avg sal fig certainly suggests a top level B school popn, doesn't it?

“The security that FMCG sector provides forms a major attraction for the graduating batch. However, the affects of economic downturn can still be seen as three out of every four students feels that recession is going to affect their final placements,” said Shaveta Bhardwaj, Associate Director Client Solutions, The Nielsen Company.

Among factors cited for driving their decision to choose a company, good job prospects topped the list with 69 per cent votes. Other factors that are critical for students in their selection of a company are high degree of independence, good market standing and good salary package, job content, and a good take-home salary.

Whence dreams of World City??

Have been more enthu and optimistic than most about the possibilities and prospects for India and Indians in the emerging brave new economic world.

However, events compel me to curb my enthusiasm. I must now add a rider to my optimism. The possibilities arise only if we are able to manage our social divisions well. Else, like was sometimes said of Brazil till a few yrs ago:

"Ours may forever remain a country with potential"

OK, so what's sparking this latest round of doubt and gloom? Sample this:

Hyderabad's Image takes a beating

The continuing political uncertainty and agitations across the State following the UPA Government's announcement on the issue of statehood for Telangana has even cast its shadow on an Indo-US scientific meet in Hyderabad.

Four top US scientists working in the area of genomics and nearly 50 Indian researchers from outside the State pulled out of the three-day, Indo-US workshop that began here today, due mainly to the fallout of the Telangana issue.

With the IT, hospitality, realty and travel sectors increasingly feeling the impact with each passing day, the issue threatens to dent Hyderabad's image as a favoured destination for meetings and academic activity, feel industry insiders.

Using the classic hyderabadi expression for exasperation....

kya-hai-ki!!

Course Feedback Happened

Came in from the ASA.

Colleagues and friends had warned me some of it could be nasty. And true to form, some of it was.

Sobering? Yes. Bruising? Not quite. Best to quote Nietsche here:

"What doesn't kill you makes you stronger."

And the the experience of teaching a 4-section ISB course did make me 'stronger' in many ways. Have a slightly thicker skin now, a slightly colder heart, a less excitable (more numb?) demeanor. And importantly, a significantly better ability to distinguish signal from noise. I now realize I took a lot of noise far too seriously during the course. Won't happen again, tauba tauba. Like I said, "The first time is always special". Doesn't mean it has to be 100% nice to be memorable.

Some of the feedback I got was constructive and instructive. Thanks to those who took the trouble. The following I have already decided to incorporate:

1. Quite a few folks said "Cut down on course breadth and increase course depth." I totally agree. Specifically, will drop Conjoint and MDS from the syllabus. Will upgrade Model-building and regression analysis to full-lectures each.

2. Others wanted "More applied and less theory".
I agree with qualifications. Specifically, will make use of ready-made datasets - the ice-=cream questionnaire cum dataset, the beer dataset for secondary analysis and now, the car dataset + questionnaire as well. Applied and hands-on will be taken care of.

3. Then, folks have said "Project needs to be shorter in scope and longer in duration."
Fair enough. Will happen. Phase I starts in week 1 itself. Phase II in week 2-3. Will attempt to provide structured, step-by-step guidance in every phase. That way, scope is streamlined, efforts are more focused and in general, everything is peachy. Also, peer eval will be built in from the beginning. The project next year will be on "understanding metro consumer attitudes and shopping habits regarding modern/organized retail".

4. Shall remove the quizzes. Replaced with individual, take-home assignments based on the datasets.

5. "Resolve software issues before the course". Sure. Will dump SPSS, give up on R, and go with MEXL (and Excel throughout).

6. "Use less of email."
Yes. Sorry about this time, I guess. Will make the blog 'compulsory' as opposed to 'optional', this time. All the lectures and datasets are now ready more or less. So, less need for last emailing.

Sudhir

P.S.
Last but not least, might as well address some of the thornier criticism that arose (and was still within the realm of civility):

Some grandly wrote "None" when asked for "value/learning from the course". Thanks but no thanks. People had the option of opting out, 'twas an elective after all. Should have exercised the option then, IMHO.

A couple of others asked, (rhetorically perhaps?), of why students should be asked to taking a chance with new instructors. Good question. My answer is for the same reason customers of companies in industry will take a chance with newly minted MBAs -i.e. you - managing firm resources. Bottomline, Everyone starts somewhere. Also, tying in with the earlier question, there's a reason why rookie instructors are given electives - with a built in prior syllabus, sampling, and opt-out option - to first learn, apply and prove themselves with and only the more experienced and senior instructors handle 'core' courses.

A few others complained that "he never takes a stand about ANYTHING". Well, welcome to the real world, I'd say. Better to know how to handle nuance and complexity. The age of knowns and certitudes is passing. Little if anything can be taken for granted anymore. What would you rather have - the complex truth or a simple certitude that doesn't correspond to reality? Reminds me of Morpheus asking Neo -

"You can take the Red pill. Or you can take the Blue pill. The choice is yours, Neo."

Well, by self-selecting into one of the most demanding MBA programs in this part of the world, seems to me, you had already made that choice - the red pill. And IMHO, you knew what you were getting into - preparation for the real world. And that is a courageous thing to do - to choose reality as it is over make-believe. Let me quote Jack Welch here:

"Take control of your destiny.
Or someone else will."

You are all red pill choosers. The kind who believe in action. Karmayogis.
ATB for the future.

People's war on garbage

Kolkata’s citizens decide not to wait for the government and do it themselves.

Great spirit, good show. Read it all. A choice excerpt:

So one morning in early October, the spot saw a rather unusual gathering: about 50-odd individuals of various age, two dozen uniformed “green police volunteers”, and a fair collection of hoes and shovels. Backing them up on the road were three garbage trucks, a towing truck for vehicles, and a posse of policemen with benign expressions and a wireless van, come to cast a watchful and protective eye. In two hours, most of the garbage and the shells of the two cars were gone and those assembled left feeling elated. They had actually liberated 600 sq ft of public space from garbage. The best thing happened the next morning — pictures in a couple of papers and a longish story in one of them on the initiative. The group was galvanized to do more.

They discovered another easy target — a low jungle on top of piled-up compacted garbage, hiding a stinking public toilet, next to a water hyacinth-covered waterbody, again in as central a Kolkata location as you can get — the part of the Maidan at the crossing of Chowringhee and Park Street. Then began a minor saga of action by citizens, with help from within officialdom via individual initiative and growing corporate involvement. In close to two months, 50,000 sq ft of the Maidan has been fairly cleaned up, a 70,000 sq ft waterbody rid of its water hyacinth, 40 tonnes of garbage removed and, most importantly, work actively afoot to clean up and level out an adjoining 100,000 sq ft in order to convert it into a four-cricket pitches square and surrounding outfield.

Very heartening indeed. Read it all.

India's Next Global Export: Innovation

The latest Businessweek contains a eulogy to the famed desi concept of jugaad.

Recommended read. Some choice excerpts:

Called jugaad, India's improvisational style of invention focuses on being fast and cheap—attributes just right for these times.

Or as they say in the Army: "The important things are *always* simple." Speed and Economy for any given level of quality will likely never go out of fashion. And they are India's strength.

A Hindi slang word, jugaad (pronounced "joo-gaardh") translates to an improvisational style of innovation that's driven by scarce resources and attention to a customer's immediate needs, not their lifestyle wants. It captures how Tata Group, Infosys Technologies (INFY), and other Indian corporations have gained international stature. The term seems likely to enter the lexicon of management consultants, mingling with Six Sigma, total quality, lean, and kaizen, the Japanese term for continuous improvement.

Aha. Des finally getting due terminological recognition in the mgmt world, or what?

Like previous management concepts, Indian-style innovation could be a fad. Moreover, because jugaad essentially means inexpensive invention on the fly, it can imply cutting corners, disregarding safety, or providing shoddy service. "Jugaad means 'Somehow, get it done,' even if it involves corruption," cautions M.S. Krishnan, a Ross business school professor. "Companies have to be careful. They have to pursue jugaad with regulations and ethics in mind."

And there lies the problem. Smart regulation IMHO can do away with a lot of 'avoidable' corruption or law-breaking. For example, I recall an incident that happened when I was traveling through Mumbai int'l airport in 2004 (having traveled through there since). The airport (and all public places like Rly stns etc ) were no-smoking zones. And the airport had provided no smoking lounge at all. Essentially they made law-breakers out of otherwise ordinary, decent folk by forcing them to light up in the restrooms making a smoky mess out there.

Likewise, smart regulation and quick grievance redressal can avoid a lot of the corruption that we do see in India. Strictly IMHO, of course.

Anyway, back to the subject:

The rise of jugaad raises another question: Do companies really need to pay someone to tell them something that's as elementary as keep it simple? "Having a consulting industry built around jugaad is almost anathema to the word itself," says Robert C. Wolcott, executive director of Northwestern University's Kellogg Innovation Network. "I'm not sure how this is different from old-fashioned Yankee ingenuity."

Nonetheless, jugaad seems aligned with the times. Recession-slammed corporations no longer have money to burn on research and development. Likewise, U.S. consumers are trading down to good-enough products and services. Meantime, the Indian economy continues to plow ahead despite the global recession—it grew at a 7.9% clip in the third quarter—suggesting its executives have a winning strategy.

Already, companies as varied as Best Buy (BBY), Cisco Systems (CSCO) , and Oracle (ORCL) are employing jugaad as they create products and services that are more economical both for supplier and consumer. "In today's challenging times, American companies are forced to learn to operate with Plan Bs," notes Radjou. "But Indian engineers have long known how to invent with a whole alphabet soup of options that work, are cheap, and can be rolled out instantly. That is jugaad."

Aha. Consulting industry ripe for another makeover or what? Its true that recessions bring out the best and worst in firms. Crises force out entrenched special interests and bring in welcome change that would otherwise not have seen the light of the day. So, let jugaad prevail, I guess, and deliver value to ever more people than before, affordably.

Added later:
Must mention. Here's more mention of ISB and how the consulting suits seem to be already co-opting the next mgmt paradigm.

At the same time, a cottage industry has popped up to offer jugaad instruction. Prasad Kaipa, a former manager at Apple's (AAPL) in-house training university, uses jugaad in the courses he's teaching at Hyderabad's Indian School of Business. The University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, where high-profile Indian-born professor C.K. Prahalad teaches, has opened a research office near Infosys' headquarters in India so faculty members can observe how Indian software companies come up with ideas. McKinsey consultants have begun talking up jugaad principles with clients, too.

and

Other jugaad proponents such as Kaipa of the Indian School of Business say companies are adopting India-style innovation without even knowing it. The ex-Apple researcher points out that the iPhone maker is a champ at repurposing existing ideas and technologies in simple ways which enables it to reduce R&D outlays and produce high-margin products. "Jugaad is an Indian philosophy, but it's not unique to India," Kaipa says. "Companies in all parts of the world can learn from it and make it work for them, too."

More pearls...

...a good example is an Indian villager who constructs a vehicle to transport goats and cattle by turning an irrigation hand pump into a makeshift diesel engine for a wooden cart.
...
"At Tata Group, we're used to thinking like this," says Ananth Krishnan, chief technology officer of Tata Consultancy Services. "The jugaad mindset is crucial. It's not just jargon."
...

Ensoi.

Course grading complete

Class,

Course grading is done. The grades are with the ASA.

Grade distribution is roughly thus:
10% of the class earned an A, 49% secured an A-, 31.7% obtained B and the remaining 9.3% odd got a B-.

Was glad to see some familiar names in the A list but was also dismayed to see some familiar names do not so well.

On a separate note, Sreenath tells me of a noble gent who emailed complaining that all groups that met with me got marks revised upwards. I don't know who sent the email (and don't want to know either). But lemme clarify that the allegation is simply not true. IIRC, the majority of groups that met with me have seen no change in their overall marks.

The ostensible reason was to learn how the grading went and what could have been improved upon. I appreciate the intent, if sincere. Marks were revised upwards only in cases where I had clearly missed, misread or misinterpreted project slides (which wasn't often, btw). I would advise the said noble gent to kindly lay such baseless fulminations to rest.

Chalo, meri taraf se Alwida, sayonara and farewell to the class of 2010. Goodbye and goodluck.

Sudhir

Project : some thoughts

Update:

OK, I see Shri Sreenath has ridden to my rescue again and closed the time window for Phase 3 revals.

Am receiving mails from folks saying "could you release the best 1 or 2 projects so that we can see and learn how the project should have been done", types.

Let me clarify - that it would be a stretch to impute normative traits to the highest scoring projects. The highest scoring projects were simply the ones that were the most diligent in adhering to project guidelines, structure and requirements the most.

It in now way means that the highest scoring project teams worked harder or came up with clearly superior solutions to the client problem. It just means that their solutions were logically consistent and well-executed on the PPT.

Also, because nobody exceeded 13 marks, I have allotted upto about 1 point (between 0.5 and 1) to the teams that worked hardest in securing the largest number of phase II responses. The final scores you see actually reflects this additional score. And the 2 highest scoring teams had both, not coincidentally, also done well in phase II.

Original post Continues below:

Chalo,

Shall soon be done with the finalization of phase III marks and then with the grades.

Some more thoughts on the project execution:

1. It is vital to think through the analysis process before actually doing anything.

Some groups had quite clearly gotten the thinking-through messed up. Hence the specter where the target group (prospective buyers, as defined by the gateway question, #7 was it?) was not filtered in. Result - the analysis now contains a lot of noise throwing doubt on result validity.

Had some groups argue that since we have the info anyway, why not use it; the respondents filtered out because they aren't looking to buy in the next 12 months might still buy a car in the next 2 or 5 yrs maybe, so their input should be considered, etc. Well, maybe, maybe not. POint is (and this learning carries through to industry projects you'll face at work), you have to draw a line and stick to project boundaries - else rationalizations (which are part of human nature, btw, nothing wrong with them per se) can lead you onto a never-ending runaround.

2. After the thinking-through is done, ensure the execution is meticulous.

Some groups had quite apparently thought through the analysis and knew what they wanted to do. But they seemed to have lost the plot in the execution phase. Can recall at least 2 groups that went neck deep into analysis, graphs and all but in the end failed to integrate the analyses into a coherent set of recommendations.

The point of the analysis was to select an option (which submarket) based on well-defined consumer segments (which in turn arose from attribute preferences among other criteria).

3. Ensure slide communication is complete and self-explanatory - don't assume the reader will know what you are talking about.

Quite a few groups claimed they meant something else than what was written on the slides. Such an argument cannot stand because the slides are all the space there was to tell the story. What didn't find its way onto the slides could not be considered. Besides, aajkal, in industry also, many projects ask for deliverables in PPT terms, not in word doc reports. PPT communication is a useful skill to master.

4. The market assessment task was a washout.

Market assessment, the way the consultants do it - should have merited a half-lecture at least, admittedly. It will surely find place next year.

Mkt assessment is a very logical and seemingly common-sensical sequential process of deducing the market size or potential mkt size using a series of extrapolations and assumptions on secondary, known data.

So the potential demand for the proposed car could be --> (Total # households in india) * (% in the target income group) * (% in the target age range and demographics) * (% in urbans and metros) * (% already own a car)* (% willing to pay in teh target price range)*(% looking to buy in the next year)* (etc etc*) types.

*Just indicative but you get the idea.

You were asked to do a mkt assessment of the consumer segment you finally selected (after the cluster analysis stage) - by projecting sample share onto the target population share. Very few groups attempted this at all.

5. Be diligent when catering to client requests that have been explicitly made.

In this case, I had quite clearly asked for a data section (half slide worth perhaps) for each analysis method that clearly specified the dimensions of the input matrices to each analysis procedure.

NOBODY did this or bothered to write this down.

Now, the data section would have immediately helped place what went into the analysis proc, so I would have a good idea of what came out.

That did not happen.

There was little to show what went into factor analysis, for example. Was it filtered or not? What was the coding scheme like - were missing values replaced by mean or deleted? Basic things like this. Not even the appendices contained a data section. Not good!

Folks, the client is no fool and woe befalls those who make such an assumption. Typically, in consulting projects(aajkal at least) clients have their own panel of experts go over the recommendations the consults dish out with a fine toothcomb to ensure the consults have been rigorous and proper. Nowadays, clients also playoff one consult firm against another by comparing bits and pieces of the same project spread across the two. It really pays to be diligent in such matters.

Added later:
6. Let the data speak.

Many groups had decided on submarket a priori and then proceeded to do factor and cluster analysis on a chosen submarket. I can't say the approach is wrong but I wasn't too happy with the approach to start with. I would rather the attribute prefs decide segmentation- then targetting - then positioning (under the classic STP framework) simply because it lets data speak quite freely. The submarket preferences of respondents could conceivably have beena ccommodated as an additional clustering variable, perhaps.

Anyway, heated debates followed on why the first-submkt then factor-cluster approach is better with a lot of groups. Let me clarify that if you did factor cluster outside the classic STP framework, it is not necessarily wrong, just that the input logivcal flow is quite a little skewy now and that is why you got partial marks for the 'factor/cluster input quality' component. The 'factor/cluster interpretation' grade component is quite independent of the input quality, though.

OK, so the grading in phase III was deliberately kept slightly non-easy because of a variety of reasons. Perhaps the other grade components save phase 3 were quite easygoing and could do with some balancing. In any case, the class had ample and repeated notice about the tough-grading prospect in phase 3.

Chalo bhai, signing off for now. Sayonara.

About the peer review

Class,

Have received some pointed misgivings about the peer review exercise.

Let me clarify that the exercise was overwhelmingly positive in that most folks gave their group members good marks.

There were a few cases where that didn't happen. Even there, minor differences in marking (if they weren't all exactly equal) could be glossed over and were glossed over, in fact.

Only in the rarest of cases where a zero was given to particular member by a majority of the concerned group was anything done and even that was a couple of % points worth of penalty.

Part of the reason why this had to be done this way was that it was announced late and was not part of the project detail from the beginning (it will be so next year, helping ensure everybody contributes and nobody free-rides on group work).

Hope that helped clarify.

Sudhir