Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Indo-UK relations

Dean Nelson in the Telegraph UK writes a poignant piece mourning the formal recognition of the passing of an era: Can Cameron reignite India's love affair with Britain?

David Cameron’s decision to take three of his four most senior Cabinet colleagues with him to New Delhi next week, along with his higher education minister, marks a historic moment in almost 400 years of British engagement with India. It gives ceremony to a state of affairs that has been the case for some time but not, until now, acknowledged: we need India more than it needs us.

Welcome to a brave new world, Dean ol' chap. Brave Old world actually. Sri Nandan Nilekani aptly says it in hos book Imagining India that India's rise is merely a recovery to a very stable equilibrium that existed for centuries before the Industrial revolution - India and China dominating world GDP, trade, tech, ideas and culture.

For those of you whose most recent glimpse of India was the brutal poverty shown in Slumdog Millionaire, or believed you had just elected a government committed to clamping down on south Asian immigration, think again and steel yourselves: Mr Cameron’s visit with the largest senior Cabinet delegation in recent memory heralds the arrival of an Indian century.
Indian century? Asian century will do, IMHO. Better not to draw premature attention. Am not sure India's ready for showtime yet.

His aim is not just to win contracts for British firms, but to establish a strategic relationship in which our scientists, engineers, designers and entrepreneurs will work with their Indian counterparts and combine British innovation and Indian costs to sell to the rest of the world.

It is a challenge to the more familiar view of India, as home to 456 million people living in poverty – just under half its population – and one third of the world’s poor. This grim statistic remains accurate but not as urgent as other developments: India is the world’s second fastest-growing economy. It is expected to overtake China as the fastest-growing within 40 years, and also replace it as the world’s greatest population with more than two billion people by 2050. As its population rises, so too will its number of highly educated graduates and skilled engineers – already qualifying at the rate of 160,000 per year.

The pressing need to “partner” India was explained to me two years ago by a professor heading a series of collaborations between British and Indian university research departments and technology companies. They were hoping to develop revolutionary communications systems which could run on minimal electricity and store sensitive data securely in disaster-proof circumstances. “It is better to help them develop now than be overtaken and alone later,” he said.

Good good good. Jai ho.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Some tweets

Well, am on twitter now.
http://twitter.com/sudvoleti
And its much, much easier tweeting interesting stuff as they come rather than write detailed blog posts about them.

Here's the weekly tweet dose:
"The best way to save is to not get into debt". Simple, powerful truism. Jai Ho.

Another gr8 Yindian success story. http://tinyurl.com/ygaaysy.

Joginder Singh in the Pioneer on India's anti-terror record. http://tinyurl.com/yebmpj7

The Economist on 'gendercide' - Chindia's terrible skew in the gender ratio. http://tinyurl.com/y9s8r2z

B-school jitters in Europe: Are Top Oiropean B-schools a clique? http://tinyurl.com/ye6qh9k

Efficient mkts hypothesis is dead. Easy to beat upon it now like Krugman does here: http://tinyurl.com/ybrklxj

A brief history of complex numbers. Fun read. http://tinyurl.com/y99urz5

Tom Friedman on the khosla and KR Sridhar innovations. http://tinyurl.com/yjp9uuh

IPL the world's most watched sporting event? A tad too ambitious, IMHO. But hey, dream big! http://tinyurl.com/ydazvk6

Shall keep posting tweets here more often.

Thursday, March 4, 2010

What the phoren press is saying about India's Economic prospects

Martin Wolf has written a brilliant piece in the FT:
India's elephant charges on through the economic crisis

Excerpts:
Before the crisis the country's gross savings rate had hit 36 per cent of GDP (see chart). Given the country's attractions to long-term foreign capital, that would allow an investment rate of close to 40 per cent of GDP. (Aha!)Such a high rate of investment could deliver 10 per cent growth. It might deliver even more: since India's output per head (at purchasing power parity) is roughly a fifteenth of that of the US, the potential for fast growth is huge.

Importantly:
I was struck by the upbeat tone of the essay on "macroeconomic performance and policies, 2000-8" by Shankar Acharya, a former chief economic adviser to the Indian government. Dr Acharya is the most sober of competent analysts of the Indian economy. Indeed, the book gives a strong sense of the confidence of the technocratic elite in India's performance and prospects. Similar confidence is palpable among the business elite. This confidence makes this a radically different India from the one I knew when I was the senior divisional economist for India, at the World Bank, in the mid-1970s.

The emergence of an elite consensus on where the country is going is clear to any regular visitor.

Very Importantly:
Another feature is the belief that the pragmatism of India's policies, particularly over global finance and the balance of payments, had proved correct. Those in charge of a vast country with so many vulnerable people are rightly wary of making their economy hostage to the sociopathic tendencies of the financial sector.
Ordinarily, I would've said perhaps 'sociopathic' is too harsh a term. But having seen US fin sector shenanigans in the past 18 months, am no longer so sure.

Very gratifyingly, however comes this disarming admission that just blew me over:
Exhausted by the burden of its pretensions, the UK should soon offer its seat on the security council of the United Nations to its former colony. Its condition would be that France does the same in favour of the European Union. Whether or not such enlightened statesmanship is forthcoming (presumably not), we are moving into the age of continental superpowers. Asia will be home to not one, but two, of them.

Jai Ho Indeed.

Saturday, December 26, 2009

India's Shining Decade

Surjit Bhalla, among my faorite economic columnists hits the ball out of the ballpark with this wonderful piece here in the Biz Std. link

Aaj ka must-read. Some select excerpts:

Two key conclusions emerge about Indian GDP growth. First, that this growth is now at a plateau level of 8-9 per cent. Second, that very soon, analysts and punters will have to change their Word documents to “India is the fastest growing economy in the world” rather than, “excepting China, India is the fastest growing economy”.

There are three separate reasons for this, all of which have been outlined numerous times before in these columns (and a detailed assessment was provided in Bhalla-2007*). The reasons refer to the broad determinants of economic growth — capital, labour and productivity. On the first, India is investing at the same rate as China (approximately 40 per cent of GDP), on the second, India’s labour force growth is about 1.8 per cent per year faster than China, and on the third, China has outpaced India by about 2 per cent per annum (for the last five years). Most of this outpacing has had to do with the deep and deeper currency undervaluation practised by the Chinese authorities which led to two unsatisfactory outcomes: the great financial crisis of 2008, and now the largest and fastest growing polluter of the world.

There's more:
I realise I am going out on a limb, because no one has even dared to project India to grow at even the same rate as China — and I am saying that India exceeds the China growth rate as early as 2010 (as it happens, this is the exact year forecast in Bhalla-2007). But I have good fortune on my side — my forecast of 8 per cent plus for Indian GDP growth for 2009-10 (made on April 18, 2009, “V–shape of things to come”, Business Standard) got an “endorsement” from India’s Finance Minister Mr Pranab Mukherjee when he claimed a few days ago that India’s growth could top 8 per cent this fiscal year.

What Indian policy-makers have not realised, and their counterparts around the world, especially China, do recognise, is that what international organisations say affects perceptions of the world, and affects our own negotiating positions. Take for example the assessment of poverty in India. We keep coming out with poverty lines and expert committee reports whose only terms of reference is to increase the rate or poverty to somewhere around 80-90 per cent (why they don’t reach 99 per cent poor is a mystery). China, on the other hand, refuses to let the Asian Development Bank even mention the word China in its poverty assessment report for all of Asia (presumably, China is situated in Europe). China does not ask for money for climate control, and Jairam Ramesh gets berated for sacrificing India’s interests by not begging for more aid.

Read it all.

Thursday, December 17, 2009

Whence dreams of World City??

Have been more enthu and optimistic than most about the possibilities and prospects for India and Indians in the emerging brave new economic world.

However, events compel me to curb my enthusiasm. I must now add a rider to my optimism. The possibilities arise only if we are able to manage our social divisions well. Else, like was sometimes said of Brazil till a few yrs ago:
"Ours may forever remain a country with potential"

OK, so what's sparking this latest round of doubt and gloom? Sample this:

Hyderabad's Image takes a beating

The continuing political uncertainty and agitations across the State following the UPA Government's announcement on the issue of statehood for Telangana has even cast its shadow on an Indo-US scientific meet in Hyderabad.

Four top US scientists working in the area of genomics and nearly 50 Indian researchers from outside the State pulled out of the three-day, Indo-US workshop that began here today, due mainly to the fallout of the Telangana issue.

With the IT, hospitality, realty and travel sectors increasingly feeling the impact with each passing day, the issue threatens to dent Hyderabad's image as a favoured destination for meetings and academic activity, feel industry insiders.

Using the classic hyderabadi expression for exasperation....
kya-hai-ki!!

Wednesday, December 9, 2009

India's Next Global Export: Innovation

The latest Businessweek contains a eulogy to the famed desi concept of jugaad.

Recommended read. Some choice excerpts:

Called jugaad, India's improvisational style of invention focuses on being fast and cheap—attributes just right for these times.

Or as they say in the Army: "The important things are *always* simple." Speed and Economy for any given level of quality will likely never go out of fashion. And they are India's strength.

A Hindi slang word, jugaad (pronounced "joo-gaardh") translates to an improvisational style of innovation that's driven by scarce resources and attention to a customer's immediate needs, not their lifestyle wants. It captures how Tata Group, Infosys Technologies (INFY), and other Indian corporations have gained international stature. The term seems likely to enter the lexicon of management consultants, mingling with Six Sigma, total quality, lean, and kaizen, the Japanese term for continuous improvement.

Aha. Des finally getting due terminological recognition in the mgmt world, or what?

Like previous management concepts, Indian-style innovation could be a fad. Moreover, because jugaad essentially means inexpensive invention on the fly, it can imply cutting corners, disregarding safety, or providing shoddy service. "Jugaad means 'Somehow, get it done,' even if it involves corruption," cautions M.S. Krishnan, a Ross business school professor. "Companies have to be careful. They have to pursue jugaad with regulations and ethics in mind."

And there lies the problem. Smart regulation IMHO can do away with a lot of 'avoidable' corruption or law-breaking. For example, I recall an incident that happened when I was traveling through Mumbai int'l airport in 2004 (having traveled through there since). The airport (and all public places like Rly stns etc ) were no-smoking zones. And the airport had provided no smoking lounge at all. Essentially they made law-breakers out of otherwise ordinary, decent folk by forcing them to light up in the restrooms making a smoky mess out there.

Likewise, smart regulation and quick grievance redressal can avoid a lot of the corruption that we do see in India. Strictly IMHO, of course.

Anyway, back to the subject:
The rise of jugaad raises another question: Do companies really need to pay someone to tell them something that's as elementary as keep it simple? "Having a consulting industry built around jugaad is almost anathema to the word itself," says Robert C. Wolcott, executive director of Northwestern University's Kellogg Innovation Network. "I'm not sure how this is different from old-fashioned Yankee ingenuity."

Nonetheless, jugaad seems aligned with the times. Recession-slammed corporations no longer have money to burn on research and development. Likewise, U.S. consumers are trading down to good-enough products and services. Meantime, the Indian economy continues to plow ahead despite the global recession—it grew at a 7.9% clip in the third quarter—suggesting its executives have a winning strategy.

Already, companies as varied as Best Buy (BBY), Cisco Systems (CSCO) , and Oracle (ORCL) are employing jugaad as they create products and services that are more economical both for supplier and consumer. "In today's challenging times, American companies are forced to learn to operate with Plan Bs," notes Radjou. "But Indian engineers have long known how to invent with a whole alphabet soup of options that work, are cheap, and can be rolled out instantly. That is jugaad."

Aha. Consulting industry ripe for another makeover or what? Its true that recessions bring out the best and worst in firms. Crises force out entrenched special interests and bring in welcome change that would otherwise not have seen the light of the day. So, let jugaad prevail, I guess, and deliver value to ever more people than before, affordably.

Added later:
Must mention. Here's more mention of ISB and how the consulting suits seem to be already co-opting the next mgmt paradigm.

At the same time, a cottage industry has popped up to offer jugaad instruction. Prasad Kaipa, a former manager at Apple's (AAPL) in-house training university, uses jugaad in the courses he's teaching at Hyderabad's Indian School of Business. The University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, where high-profile Indian-born professor C.K. Prahalad teaches, has opened a research office near Infosys' headquarters in India so faculty members can observe how Indian software companies come up with ideas. McKinsey consultants have begun talking up jugaad principles with clients, too.

and
Other jugaad proponents such as Kaipa of the Indian School of Business say companies are adopting India-style innovation without even knowing it. The ex-Apple researcher points out that the iPhone maker is a champ at repurposing existing ideas and technologies in simple ways which enables it to reduce R&D outlays and produce high-margin products. "Jugaad is an Indian philosophy, but it's not unique to India," Kaipa says. "Companies in all parts of the world can learn from it and make it work for them, too."

More pearls...
...a good example is an Indian villager who constructs a vehicle to transport goats and cattle by turning an irrigation hand pump into a makeshift diesel engine for a wooden cart.
...
"At Tata Group, we're used to thinking like this," says Ananth Krishnan, chief technology officer of Tata Consultancy Services. "The jugaad mindset is crucial. It's not just jargon."
...

Ensoi.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

Interesting WSJ article

Article titled:The Henry Ford of Heart Surgery shows how assembely line mass production technqiues can substantially lower healthcare costs in ops even as complex as heart surgeries.

Of course, the process innovations that enabled this miracle to come about - by leveraging massive scale economies - happens yet again in Yindia.

And while the cost declines are nothing to sneeze about, the quality uptick coming in is also compelling indeed. Chew on this a while:

- The typical US cost is $20-100k whereas the very same Op in Banglore costs $2k.
- At the same time, the avg hospital profitability is higher in India than in comparable heart surgery hosps in the states!
- And all this while Quality figs - measured in terms of mortality rates for heart patients a month after surgery is lower in India (at 1.4%) than in the States (at 1.9%).

Munch on that a while and consider the implications.

The entrepreneur doctor who embarked on this brave route has a lot to look forward to in terms of expansion and new mkts. He's setting up a hosp in the Caribbean to service the US mkt from its near abroad. On more in Iceland/Ireland or central Europe to invade the EU mkt should be on the cards. All funded by pvt equity play, by the way.

Anyway, read the article in full. Some choice excerpts:

Dr. Shetty, who entered the limelight in the early 1990s as Mother Teresa's cardiac surgeon, offers cutting-edge medical care in India at a fraction of what it costs elsewhere in the world. His flagship heart hospital charges $2,000, on average, for open-heart surgery, compared with hospitals in the U.S. that are paid between $20,000 and $100,000, depending on the complexity of the surgery.

The approach has transformed health care in India through a simple premise that works in other industries: economies of scale. By driving huge volumes, even of procedures as sophisticated, delicate and dangerous as heart surgery, Dr. Shetty has managed to drive down the cost of health care in his nation of one billion.

His model offers insights for countries worldwide that are struggling with soaring medical costs, including the U.S. as it debates major health-care overhaul.

"Japanese companies reinvented the process of making cars. That's what we're doing in health care," Dr. Shetty says. "What health care needs is process innovation, not product innovation."

At his flagship, 1,000-bed Narayana Hrudayalaya Hospital, surgeons operate at a capacity virtually unheard of in the U.S., where the average hospital has 160 beds, according to the American Hospital Association.

Narayana's 42 cardiac surgeons performed 3,174 cardiac bypass surgeries in 2008, more than double the 1,367 the Cleveland Clinic, a U.S. leader, did in the same year. His surgeons operated on 2,777 pediatric patients, more than double the 1,026 surgeries performed at Children's Hospital Boston.

Next door to Narayana, Dr. Shetty built a 1,400-bed cancer hospital and a 300-bed eye hospital, which share the same laboratories and blood bank as the heart institute. His family-owned business group, Narayana Hrudayalaya Private Ltd., reports a 7.7% profit after taxes, or slightly above the 6.9% average for a U.S. hospital, according to American Hospital Association data.

And...

The group is fueling its expansion plans through private equity, having raised $90 million last year. The money is funding four more "health cities" under construction around India. Over the next five years, Dr. Shetty's company plans to take the number of total hospital beds to 30,000 from about 3,000, which would make it by far the largest private-hospital group in India.

At that volume, he says, he would be able to cut costs significantly more by bypassing medical equipment sellers and buying directly from suppliers.

Then there are the Cayman Islands, where he plans to build and run a 2,000-bed general hospital an hour's plane ride from Miami. Procedures, both elective and necessary, will be priced at least 50% lower than what they cost in the U.S., says Dr. Shetty, who hopes to draw Americans who are uninsured or need surgery their plans don't cover.

By next year, six million Americans are expected to travel to other countries in search of affordable medical care, up from the 750,000 who did so in 2007, according to a report by Deloitte LLP. A handful of U.S. insurance plans now give people the choice to be treated in other countries.

The growth in Americans seeking treatment abroad has skyrocketed and can safely be expected to grow even further. If somebody is going to take advantage of this burgeoning trend, why not a desi do so?

Quality issues tackled:
But Jack Lewin, chief executive of the American College of Cardiology, who visited Dr. Shetty's hospital earlier this year as a guest lecturer, says Dr. Shetty has done just the opposite -- used high volumes to improve quality. For one thing, some studies show quality rises at hospitals that perform more surgeries for the simple reason that doctors are getting more experience. And at Narayana, says Dr. Lewin, the large number of patients allows individual doctors to focus on one or two specific types of cardiac surgeries.
...
Dr. Shetty's success rates appear to be as good as those of many hospitals abroad. Narayana Hrudayalaya reports a 1.4% mortality rate within 30 days of coronary artery bypass graft surgery, one of the most common procedures, compared with an average of 1.9% in the U.S. in 2008, according to data gathered by the Chicago-based Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

It isn't possible truly to compare the mortality rates, says Dr. Shetty, because he doesn't adjust his mortality rate to reflect patients' ages and other illnesses, in what is known as a risk-adjusted mortality rate. India's National Accreditation Board for Hospitals & Healthcare Providers asks hospitals to provide their mortality rates for surgery, without risk adjustment.

Dr. Lewin believes Dr. Shetty's success rates would look even better if he adjusted for risk, because his patients often lack access to even basic health care and suffer from more advanced cardiac disease when they finally come in for surgery.

On the bottom-of-the-pyramid opprtunity in India and how the high value consumer subsidizing the low income ones all leveraged using scale is an excellent example of "it happens only in Yindia". TN based Arvind Eye Hospital also famously follows the same model.

Would be great is some Northern states like HP or Uttaranchal get their act together and offer these kind of hospitals land on favorable terms. Such health cities should be there in all 4 zones of the country, at least. Right now they are pursuing manufacturing units giving tax breaks and concessional land rates without much success.

On returning to India in 1989, Dr. Shetty performed the first neonatal heart surgery in the country on a 9-day-old baby. He also confronted the reality that almost none of the patients who came to him could pay the $2,400 cost of open-heart surgery.

"When I told patients the cost, they would disappear. They literally didn't even ask about lowering the price," he says.
...
Four years ago, Dr. Shetty scrutinized his annual bill for sutures -- then $100,000 and rising by about 5% each year. He made the switch to cheaper sutures by Centennial, cutting his expenditures in half to $50,000.

"In health care you can't do one big thing and reduce the price," Dr. Shetty says. "We have to do 1,000 small things."

He says he would also like to find lower-cost versions of his priciest medical equipment. But the Chinese makers that have brought good quality, cheaper machines to market don't yet have enough local service centers to ensure regular maintenance.

And its not as if surgeons here are paid poorly at all.
Cardiac surgeons at Dr. Shetty's hospitals are paid the going rate in India, between $110,000 and $240,000 annually, depending on experience, says Viren Shetty, a director of the hospital group and one of Dr. Shetty's sons.

Dr. Shetty was paid almost $500,000 last year, according to the group's audited financial statements.

Here, too, Dr. Shetty finds additional savings on the per-patient cost. His surgeons perform two or three procedures a day, six days a week. They typically work 60 to 70 hours a week, they say. Residents work the same number of hours.

In comparison, surgeons in the U.S. typically perform one or two surgeries a day, five days a week, operating fewer than 60 hours.

Dr. Shetty says doctor fatigue isn't an issue at his hospital, and in general, his surgeons take breaks after three or four hours in surgery.

Anyway, read it all. The lower-end of the market is a HUGE opprtunity. And addressing it will drive India's innovative edge. The solutions required will have to be Yindian and not imported. The localized market gyan and mkt access will also have to be India-heavy.

Read it all before I end up copy-pasting the entire article.

Sudhir

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

The next big thing?

Today's TOI carries this story:

India targets 1,000mw solar power in 2013

Very interesting, IMO.

The Union Cabinet is going to consider the mission document, which requires India to generate 1,000 mw of solar power every year by 2013. A complete package has been proposed to propel the power sector into `solar reforms' that could lead to annual production of 20,000 mw by 2020 if phase I of the solar mission goes well. The country currently produces less than 5 mw every year.

In the first phase, between 2010 and 2013, the government is also proposing to generate 200 mw of off-grid solar power and cover 7 million sq metres with solar collectors.

The mission, if approved by the Cabinet, will entail three phases with the ambitious targets and financial mechanisms for the latter two phases being reviewed on the basis of performance in the first three-year phase.

By the end of the final phase in 2022, the government hopes to produce 20,000 mw of grid-based solar power, 2,000 mw of off-grid solar power and cover 20 million sq metres with collectors.

Wow.

1GW/yr? That's mighty ambitious and even a significant fraction actually realized on the ground is great progress. To compare, our current total installed capacity is around 135GW (as compared to some 400GW in China and some 1250 GW in the US).

1GW/yr would be enough to power intra-city mass-transit (metros and overground high speed rail) in out top 20 cities. Having driven around in Hyd on a weekday in non-peak hours, I see no way other than a metro-like system for our top cities. NYC has a well planned and laid out metro. Why is Hyd or Banglore any less in need of one?

It would also dent our fuel bill and import dependence on oil since IMO our big cities account for a lot of our private petrol consumption.

And it would be green and non-polluting and all. Advantages raining all around. Wish the cost poart of the equation found more mention., What is the GoI planning to invest? How much does each MW of installed solar capacity cost? Etc.

BTW, did someone say entrepreneurial opportunity? You bet!

The government also plans to do away with customs and excise duty on import of capital equipment as well as ease the duty rates for raw material and inputs.

Roof-top solar power will be promoted by providing a generation based incentive for self-use as well as putting the power on to the grid.

To enhance human resources involved in the sector, it wants to train at least 1,000 engineers to specialise in the field besides providing scholarships to 100 engineers to study abroad in the first phase of the mission. IITs and other engineering institutes will be asked to set up specialised courses to meet the industry's demand.

To promote innovative uses of solar power, a venture capital fund will be set up to promote start-ups in collaboration with institutes like IIMs. A national centre of excellence for research on solar power is proposed as well to push research and development in the emerging field.

The government has proposed a Solar Energy Authority or a Mission with an additional secretary rank official to head the executive arm.